The myth of global warming and the Co2 debate

[bounty hunter]

Smurfy's comments in 'Interview the next person', made me think about posting something on this topic.

What do you know about global warming?  Are parking taxes, recycling and  wotnot really necessary?

Firstly let's establish a fact of global warming.   Yes, the world is certainly getting warmer.  The global average temperature is higher than it was 20 years ago.  How significant this is, is a little hard to guage.  Man has been collecting meterological data for such a short length of time, geologically speaking that it's impossible to know whether the current warming is just part of a bigger cycle.  We know the earth has warm times and cooler times but we don't know whether we can influence this or not. 

What we do know and it's a little vague but scientifically sound, is that we are in a warm epoch at the end of an interglacial period.  We are well over due an ice age.  The current periodicity based on previous ice ages means that we should encounter another one within the next 150 years or so.  That's quite soon, geologically speaking.  So we might be getting warmer but it's just a breather before a big freeze up and apparently the next ice age could be a hum dinger, once it gets going!  It doesn't happen overnight.

So what does global warming mean to us?  Long hot summers?  Sizzling temperatures?  Well maybe, but for our little island and we're already beginning to see it, it's wetter summers and very windy autumns and winters.  This is beacuse the warming effect of the sun is (a) increasing evaporation in the Atlantic (our main weather provider) and (b) fuelling the mechanisms that drive the hurricane cycles in the neotropics (which we always catch the tail end of.)
Hot summers are a sort of unknown quantity depending on what model you subscribe to.  This is quite complicated and even I don't understand all the maths but there are basically two scenarios.  The least worse case scenario and the worst case scenario. 

The least worse case scenario would predict English summer temperatures around 35-38 degrees by the year 2070.  There will also be accompanying late summer flooding, maybe London will flood and in the drier areas of England a degree of desertification and crop damage.  There could be also massive increases in insect pest species. 

The worst case scenario predicts summer temperatures of upto 42 degrees by the year 2070.  Flooding could be catastrophic with large areas of Lincolnshire and Norfolk under water.  The Thames valley could cause devestation making large parts of southern England uninhabitable.  London would flood without work to the design of the barrier.

So, assuming global warming is taken as read, what can we do about it.  The answer to that is almost certainly nothing.  If and it's a big if, as I shall explain the current crisis is man made, then there is no chance that we can do enough to reverse the effects.  It would need an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 to halt the scenarios outlined above.  The most optimistic predictions based on the current agreements is 5-6% by 2020.

What effect is Co2 having on climate change?  I believe nothing.  Examination of the fossil record and geological surveys have shown unequivocally that earlier warm periods in the earth's climate (identified by the presence of plants and animals that are abundant in warmer conditions) coincide with LOWER levels of Co2.  (The presence of archaic gases can be determined by microscopic examination of the rock's crystal structure.)  So the evidence contradicts the Co2 theory. Also the effects of greenhouse gases like methane and the burning of fossil fuels is also highly suspect.  Take for example 911.  The day after this tragedy, all internal aircraft stopped in the USA.  This led to an increase of 0.5 of a degree in the temperature in the USA because of the absence of air pollution from aviation omissions.  So, air pollution from the planes is actually keeping the world slightly cooler - a phenomenon known as global dimming.

I have just presented a few facts, without prejudice - but please feel free to make your own minds up.  Thankyou for listening.

Bounty

[paulham]

This has been argued to the nth degree on another forum I look at. It got VERY ugly due to differing views.
I believe that man has made a significant impact on temperatures. We certainly have polluted the rest of Earth and tend to believe the side of the argument that states that man has caused global warming. To what degree? Well, I am not too sure of that.
http://www.autocar.co.uk/forums/t/2226.aspx
If you don't get bored, some of the bitching is quite funny.

[chocadmin]

Let's not even get into the concerns raised about nasa's temperature graphs
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/05/02/a_tale_of_two_thermometers/

Regardless of the CO2 issues I'd still firmly back measures to reduce our reliance on fossil fuels, although I think much of that may depend on the fusion projects currently being worked on.

[oldspice]

Regardless of the global warming arguments and what can be concluded from them, I believe it is every citizen's duty to recyle as much as they possibly can. What is the point of having mountains of stinking rubbish, some of which takes 1000 years to break down, occupying acres of land that could be better used? 80% of what many people throw in their general rubbish bins could be re-used. Even your unwanted toys, books, clothes etc can be passed on to charity shops, local schools or someone else who can make use of them.

I live less than half a mile from a huge landfil site. At various times of the year, when the wind blows in the right direction, it stinks to high heaven. You cannot sit in your garden and everyone complains. Despite this, every other Thursday morning when our 'black bins' (general rubbish) are collected, I see  bins full of things that could have been recycled. We have three bins - brown (garden waste), green (paper, glass, plastic, cardboard etc) and black. There is no excuse for anyone living in my area not to recycle. The council will even provide very, very cheap compost bins. The city has won awards for its attempts to be as green as possible and everything is made easy for you but some people are just too lazy.

[smurfboy]

I wish our council will have the sense to do something like that. There are 80+ apartments in my block, and it shares a car park with two other developments, which also includes a bin store - would it really be that difficult to have a recycling bin there too?

[oldspice]

It is more difficult to recycle if you live in an appartment or flats because there isn't room for eveyone in the building to have three bins and you also have to make a bit of a journey to and from the facilities. Even in Peterborough, where recycling provision is very good, it runs up against problems with people who live in small houses in narrow streets where there is hardly room to put out two bins on collection day and there has been an enormous problem with community rubbish bins in flat complexes being pushed against the building and set fire to by local hooligans.

[loulou]

I am barred from my local tip for trying to recycle too much cardboard.

[goldencup]

You can't still be, surely Lou - that was ages ago!  Have they got a big poster of you at the gate, reminding people not to let you in?

[paulham]

Yes it has a name underneath it saying "Stig"

[loulou]

I could perhaps go in someone elses car and in disguise. They have my registration number. As you drive in a man always appears with a clipboard, makes a note of your reg and asks you what area you live in. then you have to sign to say you are not dumping any kittens or puppies (something like that).

[oldspice]

I am barred from my local tip for trying to recycle too much cardboard.

So, would they rather you drove out into the country and dumped it there? How ridiculous!

[loulou]

I am going to write a letter to my local mp.

[bounty hunter]

I applaud recycling as an objective, it's the way it's enforced I object too.  Spurious science behind it too.

[chocadmin]

Just to play devils advocate, as bounty suggests sometimes recycling is more harmful (at least from an energy consumption perspective) than producing new materials. It's not going to stop me recycling but it's worth thinking about.
Penn & Teller's excellent show bullsh*t once did a show on recycling - ok their numbers about paper recycling were out-of-date but they do make a convincing case for how recycling can be portrayed as a big saviour for all ills when in fact it's just not needed in many instances (particularly in the USA where there's plenty of space to dump stuff )

[paulham]

So you would have us dump waste into the ground where it can form a leachate that can be toxic and pollute water courses whilst simultaneously methane gas is produced from the waste putrifying. Methane has been shown to be a greater problem in man-made Global warming (should it exist) than CO2.